Resolves YES if my net worth exceeds M1,000,000 at any point before May 31st 11:59pm ET, for at least three consecutive hours. Note net worth not profit.
I’ve gone from 50k to 450k in net worth in the last five months, a compound monthly return of about 55%. This is pleasing to me.
At that rate it would take til about May 1st to get to M1mil. But bets you can size anywhere near optimally large get harder to find as you scale up. Also I may have more time constraints these few months. And maybe I’ll just get worse.
But I’ll include profits from my bot if I transfer them back from that account to this. I don’t know how much I’ll use the bot or if it will be profitable.
At least 3 hours to prevent payout glitches or blips from whales in markets I’ve got a huge position in.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that net worth refers specifically to the 'Net Worth' statistic displayed on the Manifold user profile, not any other definition.
1,000
3.00@Bayesian if i took more than 3 hours to pay back i suppose. but don’t want debt. if i get a managram unprompted im keeping it
@Bayesian wouldn't the debt by definition not make you a millionaire? Net worth=Assets minus Liabilities.
@HillaryClinton Networth is a field on a user’s profile on manifoldmarkets that represents their balance plus their investments minus their loans or something. So sending extra balance increases manifold networth
@Bayesian that's not the formal definition of Net Worth. My Robinhood account also has a net worth amount, but it doesn't know about my massive credit card debt.
If I went to a bank and showed them only my Robinhood account without disclosing my other debt and claimed that as my net worth, that would be fraud.
@HillaryClinton It is the formal definition of networth in the context of manifold, which is the context this market is in, unlike the bank!
@HillaryClinton No, honestly, from resolution criteria, context, and brad’s response, it sounds like he intended manifold net worth, not regular net worth
@Bayesian "At that rate it would take til about May 1st to get to M1mil. But bets you can size anywhere near optimally large get harder to find as you scale up. Also I may have more time constraints these few months. And maybe I’ll just get worse."
He clearly talks about gaining Mana from trading. Not from loans.
but since this discussion doesn’t seem to reach a resolution, I’d be happy to bet on what brad says was the intended meaning of networth in the market description, between ‘assets - liabilities’ and ‘manifold networth statistic on the profile page, which increases during loans’. Would you wanna bet?
@Bayesian i definitely meant the number manifold calls “net worth” on your profile, not anything else, sorry if this was ambiguous @HillaryClinton
also with the in built “loan” features, this increases your balance but decreases your investments by the same amount right, so your net worth doesn’t change? I don’t have any informal loans with other users or anything
@brod Oh yeah i totally thought we were talking about p2p loans, forgot about the other kind. If that is what led to the misunderstanding that is my oversight