Which major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
4
Ṁ1002030
14%
Google/Alphabet
19%
IBM
8%
Microsoft
8%
Amazon
8%
Intel
8%
Rigetti
8%
IonQ
8%
Alibaba
8%
Baidu
14%
Other
This market predicts which major technology company will achieve the most significant breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2029. A "significant breakthrough" is defined as: 1. Development of a quantum computer with >1000 logical qubits, OR 2. First demonstration of quantum advantage for a commercially relevant problem, OR 3. Development of a quantum-resistant cryptography standard that becomes widely adopted. The breakthrough must be publicly announced and independently verified by at least two academic institutions.
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