Resolves YES if there is substantial movement during the conclave towards the eventual selection.
This means that between the start of the conclave and the end of the conclave, the odds of the eventual selection on Polymarket should rise by (rounded to) 5% or greater (in absolute terms, not relative terms).
I will use the Polymarket visualization (which I believe is tied to an average of the ask-bid prices?).
For example, if the eventual Pope goes from 2-7%, or from 35-40%, that would resolve as YES.
CLARIFYING EDIT: If they go from 2 to 7 and back to 2 before the announcement, that will not be sufficient. I’m looking for the difference between the odds at sequestration time and the odds when the news is announced (or likely an hour before).
I will not bet on this market.
1,000
3.00Want to make the same market with a ~2040 expiration in case we get a rumored vote count years later?
Like if Scola's odds had jumped in 2013,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_papal_conclave#Results_of_the_ballots
Edit: although I guess your edit would rule that out.
@gamedev considering that the front runner is under 30% currently, yes, that would be a massive signal. Someone going from, say, 20 to 25% over the course of the conclave is likely due to some information. And any smart bettors won’t drive up the odds by like 25% unless they’re crazy.
@bens I'm not sure I'm totally convinced, but I reread your resolution description and its more logical than my initial lazy skim had me thinking. Betting yes mainly because I think there are many variables that could cause a 5% spike in the eventual successor during conclave than insider trading alone