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I want to help create a Manifold Government.
This would not in any way intrude with the powers of the Manifold founders/employees/moderators, in the same way that a high school student council doesn't have any powers except those delegated by the school administration and teachers.
To achieve this goal, I would like to first organize a constitutional convention, to establish the form and function of this government.
Any Manifold user is welcome to be a "framer" at the (virtual and potentially asynchronous) convention if they meet the following criteria:
Have been a user of the site for at least a year at the time of creation of this market.
Had created at least 10 markets AND/OR have a profit of at least 10k mana at the time of creation of this market.
If you would like to be a "framer", you can feel free to put forward your name in the comments and attend the convention once it is planned.
Anyone who does not meet these criteria or would not like the heavy burden of being a "framer", are welcome to attend the convention in an observer status.
I will have received the "Mandate of the People" if:
1) A THREE-FOURTHS SUPERMAJORITY (high bar!) of respondents to a poll I will post at the conclusion of this market in 1 week respond that they will support the mandate of the framers of the 1st Manifold Constitutional Convention to form a government in our shared interest. There will not be a "See results" button, just two options "I support" vs "I do not support" or something meaning something effectively the same as that.
AND
2) This constitutional convention occurs by a month from today (July 14th). This provides me motivation to hurry up and organize it.
This market closes at the end of the week and resolves either at the end of the poll or the end of the month or when a convention occurs.
I will have no special powers at this convention, although as the organizer of the convention I shall likely be primus inter pares ("first among equals"), due to my role in organizing and conceiving of it.
As to what forms of government shall be determined at the convention, that is up to the framers and the users of Manifold. I will come prepared with proposals for the framers to vote on and come to consensus on, as will other framers hopefully! Things I envision that this government might be useful for:
Assisting users and moderators, as they see fit, in resolving controversial markets through a vote of the elected representatives.
Providing a mechanism to create interesting and subjective markets that have no explicit criteria but require the consensus or vote of the elected representatives. This might make, for example, asking vibes-based questions about AI capabilities much more robust and less subject to rules-based litigation.
Providing a form of collective financing for efforts in the shared interest of the Manifold community such as bailouts, liquidity provision, and prizes/rewards for interesting market creation of useful comments. This could occur through voluntary taxation or tithing (like a mutual aid fund), for example.
Also yes, I am partially doing this because I am writing a blog post about governance strategies in resolving prediction markets, and would like some fun anecdotes.
IGNORE ALL AI SUMMARIES BEYOND THIS LINE
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Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If two accounts belong to the same person, they will only be counted as one framer.
Update 2025-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that user 'Orangey' is likely ineligible to be a framer based on the written criteria, but that exceptions might be made.
1,000
3.00Let me propose an interesting perspective as someone disenfranchised as of yet by the cutoff, and thus with a certain detatchment. For me there are not a singular crux but a double cross at issue. Firstly, is a republic inevitable? And conditionally, if is, is it better founded when those on the agora (yes I code switch to greek) are elite (will keep switching) or when the site becomes overrun by a more expansive demos? I think those are the two questions most pertinent. It is well and good to argue for a perfect world but I think we need to live in the real one we are given.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen as I said below in the comments, I think at the start of the convention, we would vote to loosen the restrictions on founders to a shorter time span, based on the feedback :)
@BlackCrusade Sentiment in the comments, perhaps?
Some users have spoken more than others and have driven the conversation to a greater extent (and that's not necessarily a bad thing in itself).
I'll also admit, I'm starting to lose the plot.
@Quroe I will admit I've been very actively vocally against it. I don't think my comments alone would be enough to drive this from 99% confidence this would happen all the way to 16%. Maybe 50% at best 😂
And if the issue was 99% was too high, then why did it get there? What drove that sentiment that people voting to enact a user run government was a foregone conclusion?
This whole thing is weird, and I agree about losing the plot
@BlackCrusade UKCleaners tends to have a ton of inside information as he cleans the homes of many of the UK-based Manifold users. He probably overhears a ton of conversations, and perhaps knows of some plot by the UK userbase to vote systematically in favor of this proposal
Here's a draft of what I would present at the 1st Constitutional Convention. You can probably tell I'm like 40 hours into The History of Rome podcast:
https://manifold.markets/post/senatus-usoresque-manifoldenses?r=YmVucw
@bens So, these officers would have responsibilities (and possibly powers), but what are they presiding over, exactly? Could you provide some examples of works such a republic would accomplish?
@bens a representative democracy is a non-starter for me and hopefully most people. Easily one of the worst forms of "democracy" in my eyes.
It also ENSURES that this will become a clique of users who abuse their position to harm others for personal benefit. There hasn't been an instance of Representative Democracy that hasn't had this issue.
@BlackCrusade basically every non-authoritarian government in the world is a representative democracy, what are you talking about?
@bens can you name a single non-authoritarian government that exists in the real world and runs a state recognized as sovereign by at least five other countries? I truly cannot think of a single one.
@Quroe yes, the Praetors will preside over elections for senators. They will be tasked with ensuring the market or poll mechanisms set up to elect Senators are fair and reasonable. So, a poll that lasts for 1 day and has 3 votes for and 2 votes against would not be approved by a Praetor obviously, but it’s within their jurisdiction to ensure that, for example, a very complex ranked-choice futarchy market runs properly.
The Quaestors’ first task will likely be to acquire mana for the operations of the government. For this, they may fundraise, issuing bonds with 10% annual interest, for example.
The Fuatarchors can… idk… figure something out.
@bens to be fair the question is a gotcha because any government that exerts authority via violence over individuals is an authoritarian government according to my viewpoint.
The USA might be one of the more permissive governments, but that's the issue, they are permissive. Which means they are allowing you to do things, which implies that they are in charge of what things you can do, and thus exercise complete authority over your actions. If you can do something only because you have been given permission, that doesn't make you as an individual sovereign, you are still beholden to the authority of the government and the threat of violence if it is decided you are not acting in accordance to the ruling body's desires.
@BlackCrusade okay sounds like you have personal, idiosyncratic views and definitions that aren't shared by 99% of humanity, so it's kind of hard to hold a conversation
@bens I think calling me a statistically insignificant minority isn't very nice (as it isn't backed up by data), and I think I spelled out my reasoning in a very easy way to follow to allow you to hold a conversation. If I had engaged in ad hominem and refused to elaborate or provide my reasoning and chose to ignore your comment by belittling you personally, I think you would have a point.
@BlackCrusade if you truly cannot think of a "single non-authoritarian government that exists in the real world and runs a state recognized as sovereign by at least five other countries" then yes, you are in the statistical minority, whether it be by your own interpretations of those words or not