This question resolves as Yes if, before January 20, 2029, the United States recognizes the Republic of China (hereafter Taiwan) as a de jure sovereign state.

This considered to have happened if at least one of the following occurs:

• The US President issues a statement that the US formally recognizes Taiwan as a sovereign and/or independent state. For example, a statement similar to President Barack Obama's statement of July 9, 2011 recognizing the Republic of South Sudan or President Joe Biden's statement of September 25, 2023 recognizing Niue would count.

• The US appoints an ambassador to Taiwan and/or accepts an ambassador from Taiwan. The head of mission must be formally credentialed as an ambassador per the 1961 Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (pdf), not a "liaison officer," "chargé d'affaires," or other lower level or non-official diplomatic ranking.

This will NOT necessarily resolve YES if

• Trump makes vague statements about recognizing Taiwan to some degree that are partially retracted, unclear, not made in an official capacity, etc.

• The US appoints something described as an ambassador but not officially an ambassador.

(part of the resolution criteria copied from Metaculus)

I will not bet in this market to remain objective.

If there is a dispute, I will consult with Manifold superusers to reach a conclusion in the spirit of the market.