Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
Plus
42
Ṁ66882032
17%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Mar 10, 1:36pm: Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people? → Will a pandemic caused by a novel pathogen occur before 2032 and result in the deaths of more than 20 million people?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
37% chance
Will another global-scale novel pathogen emerge before the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will an engineered pathogen cause a pandemic before 2030?
7% chance
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
41% chance
Will there be another pandemic by the year 2030?
42% chance
Will a Novel Disease Identified by 2025 Cause Over 100 Deaths by End of 2027?
41% chance
Will there be another major pandemic before the end of 2030
41% chance
Will the WHO declare another pandemic before 2030?
41% chance
Will an engineered virus cause a pandemic before 2035?
27% chance
New pandemic in 2025?
10% chance