Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any European country formally recognizes a Palestinian state between June 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025. Formal recognition is defined as an official declaration by a country's government acknowledging Palestine as a sovereign state. Verification will be based on official government statements or reputable news sources reporting such recognition.

Background

As of June 2025, 146 out of 193 United Nations member states have recognized Palestine as a sovereign state. (france24.com) In May 2024, Spain, Ireland, and Norway announced their recognition of Palestine, followed by Slovenia in June 2024. (apnews.com)

Several European countries have indicated potential future recognition. In May 2024, Malta's Prime Minister Robert Abela announced that Malta would recognize Palestine following a United Nations conference on June 20, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org) Additionally, in April 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that France could recognize a Palestinian state at an upcoming UN conference in June 2025. (ft.com)

Considerations

• Diplomatic Developments: The upcoming UN conference in June 2025, co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, aims to advance the two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. (apnews.com) This event may influence European countries' decisions regarding recognition.

• Political Climate: European nations' decisions may be affected by domestic political considerations, international relations, and developments in the Middle East peace process.

• Verification Sources: Official government announcements and reputable news outlets will serve as primary sources for verifying any new recognitions during the specified period.