Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
Will Google join the voluntary commitment by OpenAI/Anthropic to AISI to share major new models w/AISI prior to release?
Plus
38
Ṁ39522026
83%
chance
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1M
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Resolves to YES if Google enters into the same commitment, and shares their next major model release with the USA AISI in advance, or if Google announces it will no longer be in the frontier model business.
Resolves to NO if Google releases Gemini 2 or another similarly major frontier model release without sharing with the USA AISI, or deadline passes and no commitment has been made.
(Note: Open/closed status of the model is irrelevant to this market.)
(If Google has made this commitment already and I missed it, bet it to 99%, post your link and claim your prize now and I thank you for the cheap info.)
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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