Linked to this Kalshi question:
If there are more than 250000 federal employees no longer working relative to the January 2025 employee count before Jan 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from FRED.
Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be this one.
1,000
3.00@NicoDelon I think there is good chance federal employees go up as they hire thousands of new border patrol agents and immigration agents to manage the mass deportation they keep talking about.
@datachef some numbers will go up, yes, which makes it all the more difficult to reach net minus 250k.
Elon might achieve this by leveraging Twitter mobs to scare people into quitting: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/11/27/business/elon-musk-government-employees-targets
@TimothyJohnson5c16 Just firing them seems easier, but I can't say I would be opposed to this if it ends up working.
@Shai I don't know exactly how it works, but I think it's not so easy to just fire lots of government employees. For example, many (most?) of them are part of a union.
@VishalDoshi resolution criteria:
Outcome verified from FRED.
What matters is the FRED chart. If you want to adjust your bets based on potential furloughs or other such edge cases, you'll want to make sure you understand FRED's methodology.
The order book on this market is hilarious. Real odds are like 5 percent especially since no matter what they do they won’t be able to stop new hires so they might purge that many but it will be offset. On top of that Trump is going to use the military to deport people supposedly and that is going to require likely requisition of state national guard into federal service. Plus like aren’t they going to hire a shitload if border guards or patrol or whatever??