Background:

Central banks around the world keep big “rainy-day” funds called foreign-exchange (FX) reserves. These reserves are mostly held in a few major currencies—like the U.S. dollar, the euro, etc—so a country can pay its international bills or stabilize its own currency.

Every three months the International Monetary Fund (IMF) publishes a report, called COFER (Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves), that shows exactly what share of those global reserves sits in each currency. As of 2024, about 58% of the money in those reserves is in U.S. dollars. This question asks if the dollar’s share will ever fall below 50% before January 1, 2100 which will indicate the U.S. Dollar loosing its reserve currency status.

Resolution Criteria:

This market resolves to "YES" if before January 1, 2100 that an official IMF COFER data release shows the U.S‑dollar share of global allocated reserves fall below 50%

Fallback if COFER is unavailable ( IMF ceases publication): use the most comparable, publicly released reserve‑composition series from other official sources (BIS International Financial Statistics or Central Banks or Reputable Institutions).