Background

Iran’s technical capability: As of June 2025, Iran has enriched uranium to around 60% purity—from about 200 kg to over 400 kg—which is just shy of the ~90% threshold needed for weapons-grade material . Experts say once Iran reaches weapons-grade, assembling a bomb could take anywhere from a few weeks to several months.

Resolution Criteria

1. What counts as a “test”?
   A detonation of a nuclear explosive device (underground, atmospheric, above ground, or underwater) by the Iranian state.

2. Who resolves the outcome?
   The event must be confirmed by at least one credible international monitor (e.g., IAEA, CTBTO seismic network, or equivalent).

3. Timing

   • YES if the confirmed test occurs any time before 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2026.

   • NO if no confirmed test is reported by that deadline.