Will Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
Basic
20
Ṁ1007
2027
9%
chance

Resolves YES for the first test that takes place during the market open and close dates.

  • Update 2025-07-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will resolve based on a test occurring before the market close date (Jan 1, 2027), not the date mentioned in the title ('before 2026').

  • Update 2025-07-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to user confusion, the creator has confirmed the market covers the period up to the market close date of Jan 1, 2027.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

This says "before 2026" but the market close date would imply "before 2027".

@JimAusman Which one is it?

@EvanDaniel before the end of was what I had intended to do. I screwed up and traded on this market - I try not to do that in general. Did you trade on the basis of thinking that it applied to Jan 1 2026?

@JimAusman I honestly don't remember what basis I traded on -- that was ages ago. I was looking around at various Iran markets (there are a lot of similar markets in general) and trying to figure out what might be mispriced and just now noticed the discrepancy. I suspect if I'd noticed it last year I would have pointed it out then.

@EvanDaniel I changed the wording to make it clear. I can resolve N/A if you prefer.

@JimAusman Thank you!

I personally prefer clarification to n/a. People (like me) can read and raise questions if they find issues. Thanks for the prompt fix!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules