Resolution criteria

The election was held on November 4, 2025. This market resolves YES if Mamdani receives more total votes than the combined vote total of Cuomo and Sliwa. Resolution will be based on official results from the New York City Board of Elections.

Background

Mamdani is the Democratic Party nominee facing off against former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a longtime Democrat running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, founder of Guardian Angels. Mamdani defeated Cuomo, City Comptroller Brad Lander, and eight other candidates to become the Democratic nominee for mayor. Anti-Mamdani political action committees raised more than $40 million to oppose his candidacy and back Cuomo. Most recent polling showed Zohran Mamdani with a lead in the race, although Cuomo had gained some ground.

Considerations

In New York City, primaries are held using ranked-choice voting, also known as instant-runoff voting. However, the general election uses plurality voting, so this market compares raw vote totals across all three candidates.

• Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait for officially final results from the New York City Board of Elections before resolving, rather than resolving based on preliminary counts (even at ~90% counted).