Will the world be able to bear this man's loss?
1,000
3.00considering that he is still functioning as CEO of a publicly traded company without anyone clambering for his removal I'd say he has his shit together much more than the average person of his age, so the actuarial table must be wildly overstating his death probabilities, just like it does for congressmen. 50% is the actuarial table prediction for this market right now, so the true odds are probably at least 70% Perhaps as high as 90%. Hard to exactly quantify.
@JonathanRay How do you feel about this stance now? If you have him at 70-90 I’m happy to bet below that range
I put some limits, if you want to go bigger I’d want it to be around 70-75, he seems in good health and has no shortage of things keeping him active/busy
interpolating the social security actuarial table for 1.33 year survival on a 92 year old is 71% survival and then i'd adjust it upward farther for his SES.
@JonathanRay Oops the question is asking for 2.33 year survival which is ~50% if I round his age up to 93
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00