How many 2016 facts will be true in 2024 general? (A) Trump is GOP nominee, (b) GOP loses popular, (c) GOP wins election
How many 2016 facts will be true in 2024 general? (A) Trump is GOP nominee, (b) GOP loses popular, (c) GOP wins election
Basic
10
Ṁ1786Dec 1
0.3%
0 of 3 facts
0.4%
1 of 3 facts
99.0%
2 of 3 facts
0.3%
3 of 3 facts
3 facts were true in 2016 - how many of these 3 will be true in 2024 US general election?
Trump is gop nominee
GOP loses popular vote
GOP wins electoral college / election
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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If Donald Trump and the GOP is elected, which of these are most likely to happen?
Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2024?/Will a Republican win the US presidential election in 2028?
Conditional on Trump being elected president in 2024, will a Republican also be elected in 2028?
40% chance