Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?
Which frequency standard will the SI second be defined from, per BIPM, on 01/01/2034?
Basic
4
Ṁ3232034
39%
The cesium 133 F=3 <-> F=4 hyperfine microwave transition (no change)
12%
The strontium 87 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition
12%
The ytterbium 171 1S0 <-> 3P0 optical transition
1.9%
The thorium 229 metastable nuclear optical transition (any realization)
5%
Any other optical transition in neutral atoms
8%
Any other optical transition in ions
22%
Any system based on weighted averages of uncertainty or timekeeping contributions
The winner goes to the primary realization of the second. For example, if the Yb transition is the primary and cesium remains as a secondary realization, then Yb wins.
Any non-atomic realization can be considered to fall under the system of weighted contributions.
If there is evidence of a new international agreement on the definition of the SI second on both the BIPM and NIST websites, then the market resolves immediately to the frequency standard described in the agreement.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
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