Will leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050?
Will leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050?
Basic
6
Ṁ85Dec 31
50%
Yes
7%
No, replaced with leap minutes
6%
No, replaced with leap hours
24%
No, civil time based on atomic time (e.g. TAI) and fully decoupled from Earth rotation
7%
No, civil time based on Earth rotation (e.g. UT1) and fully decoupled from atomic time
7%
Something else
(If they're replaced by leap minutes, there will be around one every few decades, and if they're replaced by leap hours, there will be around one every couple millennia.)
Resolves based on what the rules are on 31 December 2050, regardless of how many or how few leap seconds/minutes/hours are actually added or subtracted.
They don't have to be implemented as extra seconds/minutes/hours as today -- smoother adjustments would also count.
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What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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