Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
➕
Plus
60
Ṁ3994
2030
75%
chance

Here is the history of Nuclear Explosions :)

  • September 2017: The most recent confirmed nuclear test occurred in North Korea. 

  • 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2017: North Korea conducted nuclear tests.

  • 1998: India and Pakistan, non-signatories, last tested nuclear weapons.

  • July 11, 1958: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Bikini Atoll with a yield of 9.3 megatons.

  • September 19, 1962: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Novaya Zemlya.

  • August 25, 1962: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Novaya Zemlya.

  • September 31, 1952: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Enewetak Atoll.

  • October 30, 1961: The Soviet thermonuclear bomb, Tsar Bomba, was detonated in a test over Novaya Zemlya island in the Arctic Ocean. Tsar Bomba is the largest nuclear weapon ever set off and produces the most powerful human-made explosion ever recorded.

  • August 6 and 9, 1945: The United States detonated atomic bombs over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, respectively. These bombings killed between 129,000 and 226,000 people, most of whom were civilians.

  • July 16, 1945: The world's first nuclear explosion, a plutonium implosion device, was tested at the Alamogordo Bombing Range, located 210 miles south of Los Alamos, New Mexico.

According to the Arms Control Association, at least eight countries have carried out a total of 2,056 nuclear tests since 1945. Of those, 507 have been atmospheric explosions, which spread radioactive materials through the atmosphere.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
MercurialGuesserboughtṀ20NO

Yes-ers: which countries do you envision setting them off?

Best case I can see is Iran?

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules