Will China have fewer than 8.5 million live births in 2024? | Manifold

Will China have fewer than 8.5 million live births in 2024?

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Ṁ630

Feb 2

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This question will resolve based on figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

For reference, they reported 9.02M births in 2023.

https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html

This number excludes "residents of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and foreigners living in the 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities."

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇨🇳 China

#Chinese Politics

#Human population crisis

#Baby Predictions

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Birth rate projections don't look good. 8.5 million is a significant decrease, but this market is underpriced.

bought Ṁ50 YES from 10% to 45%

@Vorak I would not say an increase from a TFR of 1.03 to 1.12 in a year of the dragon is "good" but I think no way this resolves yes: https://x.com/mi233695/status/1865443926338871609

bought Ṁ25 NO

Unlikely, 2024 is the Year of the Dragon in the Chinese Zodiac which some superstitions ascribe to be an auspicious time to be born

bought Ṁ150 NO

@spiderduckpig https://x.com/mi233695/status/1873765840082084242

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