In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?
In the Australian federal election for the 48th Parliament of Australia, will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of the seats in the House of Representatives?
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The federal election to elect the 48th Parliament must take place before the 28th of September, 2025. If the Australian Labor Party wins a majority of seats in the lower house in this election, this market resolves to YES.
To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as they did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.
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filled aṀ1,321YES at 60% order
@chrisjbillington have you bet real money this one? if you think it’s 60% likely sportsbet is giving you a 50% expected return
@brod I haven't. Thinking about it, but it's not like I'm actually super confident. 60% might have been too high.
@chrisjbillington I think that's a decent bet on your part - I take the probability to be be about 50%, wouldn't go as low as 35% currently.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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