Will a US president be impeached in the next 40 years?
Will a US president be impeached in the next 40 years?
Plus
35
Ṁ22562064
91%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
There's probably a case to be made for politicians becoming more pernicious and presidents becoming less qualified at least in the US. It's also probably the case that there's more that is seen that isn't so easily swept away.
So, maybe another president getting impeached is more likely than not. There are a lot of factors that come to my mind for thinking the affirmative, but what's the case for the contrary?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will Biden be impeached before July 2025?
1% chance
Will the next president be impeached?
59% chance
Will any US President be removed from office via impeachment and conviction before 2100?
43% chance
Will the 47th President be impeached?
52% chance
Next US federal impeachment?
Will the president during the 2024-2028 term be impeached by at least one body of congress during his term?
54% chance
Will Donald Trump be impeached in 2025?
5% chance
If Trump is elected POTUS in 2024, will he be impeached and removed from office by January 31, 2026?
5% chance
Will a US president be removed from office early for any reason through 2036?
43% chance
A US federal judge will be impeached by end of 2025
11% chance