Will there be a software-only singularity? (ACX, AI 2027 #3)
Will there be a software-only singularity? (ACX, AI 2027 #3)
10
Ṁ6282030
35%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Prediction #3 from:
My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana
and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-4 or higher before the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will Anthropic announce one of their AI systems is ASL-3 before the end of 2025?
89% chance
Singularity by 2030?
16% chance
Will there be geopolitical instability over fears of other countries reaching superintelligence? (ACX, AI 2027 #2)
54% chance
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
68% chance
How many years until the singularity? (Since December 2022)
23
Which AI future will we get?
Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?
41% chance
Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?
79% chance
Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)
30% chance