When will renewable energy overtake fossil fuels as the primary source of energy generation?
Basic
2
Ṁ60Jan 9
30%
2030
49%
2040
12%
2050
9%Other
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I flipped the switch in the mod panel so that only you can add answers to this @TimTensen , otherwise anyone could add an answer for every year (or a random text answer). If you want to do this you can, but you should write in the description what kind of answers you will accept and how you intend to resolve it
Otherwise leave it as it is now (where only you can add answers) and people will assume it resolves to the "next" year chronologically
They can also be renamed to represent buckets, e.g.
2023-2030
2031-2040
2041-2050
2050+
though I think people will understand it as it is now!
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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