What Will Happen to Cabinet-Schoof (Dutch Politics) [ADD RESPONSES]
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Plus
21
Ṁ25k
2028
90%
Cabinet will fall before 31 december 2025
82%
Immigration will fall by at least 20% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)
72%
If Schoof 1 falls, NSC will be responsible.
69%
Border checks will last longer than 6 months
65%
Marjolein Faber will be replaced as minister of Immigration
52%
Schoof will run another Marathon
50%
Next Minister who leaves is from NSC
45%
Next 'Staatssecretaris' who leaves is also from NSC
38%
The cabinet will fall before 1st of April 2025
37%
Immigration will fall by at least 30% (as seen over a full year, compared to 2023)
25%
Dick Schoof will have a sport injury
25%
Pieter Omztig will step down
21%
A message on X will be the downfall of Cabinet-Schoof
15%
Someone from the cabinet will literally fall
10%
Geert Wilders will do a long television interview
5%
PVV will create a TikTok account
5%
One or more cabinet members will give up there second passport
3%
PVV will become a party with members
3%
Dick Stoof will join a party
3%
Agema will resign due to her illness

  • Update 2024-27-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Definition of Crying: Having wet eyes in environments such as a cinema is considered crying.

    • Resolution Criteria: Based on how the media perceived the event.

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@TheWabiSabi of nobody is against Yes I will resolve yes tomorrow @traders

@TheWabiSabi Pretty cool that someone put this on the list! Well done. I wouldn't have thought of it.

@TheWabiSabi The Instagram link seems to have died, but I watched the thing on YouTube. I have an interest in saying yes but I don't think I saw tears? More like he got 'stuck'?

@TheWabiSabi tough call. i haven't bet on this question, and i won't. But i would say NO, this isn't crying. he's barely holding it in, though.
YT link (480p): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OGrxefEPBQ&t=276s

@Sqeedee Agree, but what is a cry... just wet eyes? Or waterfalls on his face?

It's definitely a hard one...

@uair01 Thank you :)

@TheWabiSabi Maybe we can look at it somewhat objectively by looking at how media is responding to it, if they are using words like 'emotional' (geëmotioneerd).

Or we can compare it to similar recent moments of politicians crying:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjhyHBf330M&t=30s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0XT5We-qes

maybe that last one is also questionable.

I guess you can resolve it as yes.

I suspect we'll see Omtzigt cry some more anyway before the cabinet falls.

@Sqeedee if I was Omtzigt, I would have called it crying. But for me having wet eyes in a cinema is crying as well.

I will resolve yes later today, because of how the media percieved is.

@TheWabiSabi Well, anyone got any photographs?

Or can we resolve this to no?

bought Ṁ250 NO

@Sqeedee I think we can resolve no, did a search and couldn't find any as well

@TheWabiSabi resolving this seems kind of premature? Omtzigt could still take a leave longer than 3 months? (Although I agree this leave was not longer than 3 months)

@EvdZ agree that this could be formulated better. If Omtzigt gets ill again I will unresolve this one, does that feel right?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@traders who has betting ideas to add?

bought Ṁ250 YES

@MarnixVreugdenhil good one. Coin toss for me.

Both directions are counted, since the responsible minister also counts both ways in his statements. His plans are to make 133 km of roads (counting both directions) permanently 130 km/h.

@traders who has suggestions for more options to add here?

I haven't seen any negative tweets by Wilders. Has anyone else? If not, I'd say we can resolve NO.

bought Ṁ846 NO

@TheWabiSabi For clarity on this market. Omtzigt's leave of absence was announced on september 11: https://www.nu.nl/politiek/6327802/nsc-leider-omtzigt-doet-tijdelijk-stap-terug-om-gezondheidsredenen.html
Does that mean this market will resolve to YES if he is still on leave on october 11?
of if he takes a leave of absence longer than a month at a later date?

@Sqeedee yes if he is still at home on October 11th, stays unresolved otherwise and No at the end of this cabinet if he returns before October 11th.

@MarnixVreugdenhil on the same day I assume?

@TheWabiSabi let's say before the end of the first 'Algemene politieke beschouwingen'

@traders feel free to add options. I will send 50 mana per option you add to help ;) DM me after adding the option

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