Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?
🔮
Crystal
28
Ṁ27k
2026
31%
chance

On an April 2024 episode of Bloomberg ODD LOTS podcast, guest Josh Wolfe tells us that just as ChatGPT opened everyone's eyes to the power of chatbots, a similar moment is coming in the robotics space.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-22/josh-wolfe-the-chatgpt-of-robotics-is-coming?srnd=oddlots

https://youtu.be/qi8F3elM-3U?si=vG4sStOGD8qd7IoS

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Preferred method for resolution will be based on judgement by any of the participants in this discussion (Josh Wolfe, Tracy Alloway or Joe Weisenthal)

This market resolves to "YES" if any of the three publicly assert that we have crossed the equivalent of a "ChatGPT moment" threshold for Robotics.

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Otherwise...

I'll resolve based on whether there have been advances that capture these main elements of what Josh is predicting:

  • advances that are sufficient to capture the general public's attention, similar to what occurred with the rollout of ChatGPT and other advanced chatbots

  • robot systems that use a consumer-friendly and intuitive natural language interface (Instead of complex programming, you'd say things like, "Robot, please pick up the red box and place it on the shelf.”)

  • robot systems that generalize to a wide range of tasks that can be performed in a wide range of environments

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bought Ṁ2,500 NO

Betting no because I think a ChatGPT moment requires widespread public availability, and that isn’t going to happen this year even if the technology exists.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

@derikk Exactly, ChatGPT had 100 million users within two months. That can only happen with a software product, not a physical product.


Jensen Huang : "The ChatGPT moment for general robotics is just around the corner"
https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/6czk05rq0

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang debuts new AI platform to dominate the ‘ChatGPT moment’ in robotics"
https://fortune.com/2025/01/06/nvidia-new-ai-platform-robotics-chatgpt-moment-robots-self-driving-cars/

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