Which city will Tetraspace live in at the end of 2025?
Which city will Tetraspace live in at the end of 2025?
Plus
6
Ṁ21222026
29%
London
21%
18%
New York
6%
San Francisco
5%
Middlesbrough
5%
Oxford
5%
Cambridge
5%
Tokyo
5%
Blackpool
3%
Osaka
Resolves where I live at the end of 2025. If I have an obvious permanent address, resolves to that; if there is a city I stay in for two months between November 2025 and February 2026, resolves to that; otherwise, resolves Other.
Resolution is by the metropolitan area; so if I end up living in Berkeley, this will still resolve San Francisco.
As of August 2024 my room is in London and I am a UK citizen with no other visa arrangements.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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