This resolves as the bucket that contains the number of floating point operations (FLOP) used to train GPT-5
FLOP may be performed at any precision (INT8, FP16, etc.)
This resolves on the basis of the numbers reported by OpenAI, and, if they don't report this, on the basis of the first credible estimates reported in this database (details about the database may be found here)
If GPT-5 is not released by EOY, 2027, this resolves ambiguously
If the estimate is exactly on the edge of each range, we will resolve it as the largest of the two options
1,000
3.00@TamayBesiroglu What happens if it's between 1e26 and 2.5e26? It seems there are two options for this
Between 5e25 FLOP and 2.5e26 FLOP
Between 1e26 FLOP and 5e26 FLOP
@BoltonBailey Yea, it's tricky not to have a non-even log-scale and round numbers. I've now edited the buckets slightly to roughly incremenent by factors of three.
@TamayBesiroglu I can see that. These buckets are much more even. I have sold my positions because the numbers on the options now no longer reflect what they were when I bought them. Luckily, no one seems to have traded in the interim.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00