If one or more of the US, Ukraine, or European Union countries were responsible for the recent Nord Stream attack, this question resolves YES.
If Russia or Belarus was responsible, this question resolves NO.
If a different nation or a non-state actor was responsible, and in my estimation their motives were aligned with one of the two sides, this question will resolve accordingly.
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely.
(The intent of this market is similar to https://manifold.markets/zzq/was-a-westernaligned-party-such-as but without a fixed end date or likelihood of N/A.)
1,000
3.00WSJ has a long and detailed write up of a German police investigation that alleges it was Ukraine, originally at the behest of their President. https://archive.is/8LKeL
I've bid it up to 77% intentionally because that's been the baseline in this related market for months. I will subsidize this market with any winnings I might make on that market. I may participate later as circumstances evolve.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00