Will the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office?
Will the next POTUS be involved in a sex scandal while in office?
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Only resolves to the next new president after Biden. Current and past presidents who get re-elected don't count.
Resolves YES if a scandal about sexual impropriety that happened in office comes out that hits many of the major news sources while they're still in office, otherwise NO after their term(s) are finished.
As this might resolve after their first term if they don't get re-elected, this won't be re-resolved if they go on to serve split terms and have such a scandal in their second unconnected term.
This question's close date is likely to be extended by future election results.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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bought Ṁ50 NO1y
Of the last ten presidents I think only Clinton would qualify, so this should be pretty low.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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