Will the next Pope take the name "Francis?"
Will the next Pope take the name "Francis?"
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Ṁ16kresolved May 8
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This market will resolve to YES if the pope elected during the 2025 papal conclave uses the word "Francis" in any part or combination of his papal name. If the conclave does not conclude before July 1, 2025, the market will resolve to N/A. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
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