Will China recreate GPT-4o by EOY 2024? | Manifold

Will China recreate GPT-4o by EOY 2024?

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21

Ṁ2079

Jan 1

9%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Text, audio input-output, vision input-output all need to be at a similar level.

GPT-4o-0513

Text will be measured by ELO on Lmsys with a margin less then 10.

Criterion for audio and vision are yet to be determined.

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#GPT-5 Speculation

#GPT-4 speculation

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possibly relevant
https://huggingface.co/papers/2406.09412

bought Ṁ5 YES

What counts as Chinese

@ismellpillows Chinese company/organizations.

I.e. if Huawei Tel Aviv lab made it, it counts. Meanwhile, MSRA does not count

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