Will this question get more than 50 traders in 1 week?

Ṁ24k

4 hours ago

99%

chance

ALL

Will close in 1 week (6/19) at 11:59pm.

Update 2025-06-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that "more than 50 traders" means the number of traders must be strictly greater than 50 (i.e., 51 or more) for the market to resolve to YES.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

25 Comments

38 Holders

211 Trades

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@SotS1689 Is the closing time changed? Why?

@vdb he says it closes at 6/19 at 11:59. This was said in the description and was not changed.

@ZandaZhu Which time zone?

I think the closing time was not the same before

@SotS1689

resolved the market earlier today.

@vdb not sure what time zone. I think he changed the ending time to 11: 59pm in his time zone

@ZandaZhu You agree that the closing time was changed then?

@vdb I am agreeing that built in manifold closing time was changed but the description always said 6/19 at 11:59 pm. The manifold closing time might have changed because he realized he set the time wrong so he changed the time to correct his mistake.

@ZandaZhu I'm just asking @SotS1689 why the "manifold closing time" was changed. Maybe it's for the reason you mentioned. I don't know.

@vdb who would have won if the time wasn't changed?

@ZandaZhu Only the multiverse god knows.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 99.9% to 99.0%

bought Ṁ10 NO

@vdb just in case

@vdb you could also ask mods if you think that "NO" wouldve won

@ZandaZhu Would be fun if someone opens a market to bet on how this market will turn out.

@vdb surely somebody knows what the answer is right

bought Ṁ1 NO

Actually, no's winning. You see, no new trader would bet no since that would mean an immediate loss. And you can't bet yes at higher than 99%, so bingo, no wins

@100Anonymous even if some old trader was now greedy for no, they would know that lowering pp below 99 is just loss for them, so they wouldn't do that

bought Ṁ5 NO

@100Anonymous you assume I'm a rational actor

@evan I'll take a donation for winning this for you.

sold Ṁ0 NO

@BlackCrusade Ah, this was the ONE thing that I thought was possible.

One more trader and this resolves YES

Ok if its reopened - we can't buy or sell at the moment so new traders can't add

@Silverpawn Should be fixed now.

Why did this resolve yes? Isn’t a naive reading of more than 50: traders > 50?

@SwedHouse My B, yes I unresolved for exactly that reason.

@SotS1689 no worries!

@SotS1689 could you please change the end time for the market? right now it says it ends at 6/19 at 9:32 AM but the description says it ends at 11:59 pm

@ZandaZhu Timezone difference, I think

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