California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by July 18, 2025?
14
Ṁ649Jul 18
8%
chance
1D
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1M
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This market predicts whether California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by July 18, 2025. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) provides real-time earthquake data, which will be used to resolve this market. USGS Earthquake Map
Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Geographic Scope Update:
Only earthquakes occurring within the official boundaries of the U.S. state of California will be considered.
Earthquakes in Baja California will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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