What will be the true statements about China's renewables in 2024?
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23
Ṁ2405
resolved Feb 9
Resolved
NO
Carbon emissions will start to drop
Resolved
N/A
EV battery prices will be less than 57$/kWh
Resolved
NO
Solar installations will reach 400 GWs
Resolved
YES
China's renewables installations > the rest of the world combined

Carbon emissions will start to drop-->china's carbon emissions in 2024 will be lower than in 2023

Solar installations will reach 400 GWs --> referring only to the installations in 2024

EV battery prices will be less than 57$/kWh --> resolves true if any battery manufacturer will sell batteries that cost less than 57$/kWh by the end of 2024

China's renewables installations > the rest of the world combined --> China's total renewables installations iwill be higher than the installations of the rest of the world combined in 2024

  • Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - EV battery prices: Resolved to N/A due to ambiguity between battery cells and packs.

    • China's renewables installations > the rest of the world combined: Resolution postponed until clear data is available.

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Here's the latest data.
Global renewable installations - 700 GW: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/01/13/the-fastest-energy-change-in-history-continues/
Chinese renewable installations - 357 GW: https://apnews.com/article/wind-solar-energy-china-climate-carbon-emissions-b337503abfacfd9b7829fd7bbcd507e9
It's very tight, but it seems China is more than half. I'll resolve the last market as YES. If there's more accurate evidence in the future that overturns this result, I will change the resolution.

Carbon emissions will start to drop: resolves to NO

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/global-co2-emissions-hit-record-high-2024-report-says-2024-11-13/

Solar installations will reach 400GW: NO

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202412/24/WS676a1acaa310f1265a1d4975.html

EV battery prices will be less than 57$/kWh. Complex, see below:

Bloomberg article (July 2024)

Claims that the cost of LFP battery cells in China has fallen by 51% since 2023 to an average of $53/kWh.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-09/china-s-batteries-are-now-cheap-enough-to-power-huge-shifts

BUT:

BNEF Article (December 2024)

Claims prices in china have fallen to $94/kWh for battery packs, the lowest globally.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-see-largest-drop-since-2017-falling-to-115-per-kilowatt-hour-bloombergnef/

I realized I didn't clarify whether this resolved to the price of battery cells or packs.

I'll resolve this to N/A. Apologies for the confusion.

China's renewables installations > the rest of the world combined:

This seems to be pretty tight. I'll wait a few months to resolve so that we have clear data

bought Ṁ35 NO

... I think you mean $57/kwh, not Gwh...

And that would be cell prices, not pack prices?

Also, option says $57, description says $55

Tempted to bet no on the Gwh price, but that makes it awkward for you to change it, so I'll hold off.

@equinoxhq thank you, you are correct

@equinoxhq sorry about the typos. Please everyone let me know if it's fine that I updated the description or if someone thinks I should resolve the market N/A

@SimoneRomeo Seems fine to me :)

@equinoxhq sorry Myron, I didn't get and handle the first part of your objection. I should have clarified whether I meant packs or cells

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