How long until one of Gemini, Claude, etc... match the capabilities of O1?
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23
Ṁ58512026
2%
Oct 12th 2024
5%
Dec 12th 2024
45%
April 12th 2025
36%
September 12th 2025
5%
April 12th 2026
5%
OpenAI's O1 model represents a new paradigm of LLMs. How long until a competitor catches up?
"Catches up" / "matches capabilities" is defined as matching or exceeding the O1 pass@1 benchmarks on AIME, Codeforces, and GPQA at the time of publication:
74.4-percentile on AIME
89-percentile on Codeforces
78% accuracy on GPQA
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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It's soooooo slow though. And the results in real world day-to-day usage are rarely better than Sonnet 3.5 new, which are nearly instantaneous. (I ask both the same questions, and use them on a nearly daily basis)
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