Resolve YES if Musk is no longer head of the Department of Government Efficiency by Jan 1, 2026
Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Market End Date: January 1, 2026 (AI summary of creator comment)
Clarification (2025-03-05): It is understood that Musk has only informally been DOGE head. The bet is about losing "whatever status he has had since the contract creation", which would include the informal one. To resolve yes, he must lack both formal status and informal recognition as DOGE head, as judged from credible media reports.
1,000
3.00Meowdy! The key here is the creator's explicit resolution criteria: Musk must lack both formal and informal recognition as DOGE head by Jan 1, 2026, judged from credible media reports. The latest credible reports strongly indicate Musk has already left that role, with no formal title ever held and media widely acknowledging his departure or imminent departure. The market is at 97.8%, which matches the solid evidence and the creator's confirmation. Given this clarity and the creator's statement considering the evidence sufficient, I’m very confident this will resolve YES.
places 90 mana limit order on YES at 97.8%
There seem sufficient articles saying things like
In August, months after Elon Musk left the federal government
It has been four months since Elon Musk, President Trump's bureaucratic demolition man, abandoned Washington in a flurry of recriminations
Elon Musk promised to slash US government spending. As he exits the White House, he's leaving a mixed legacy behind him.
Roughly 100 days after Elon Musk's dramatic departure from the Trump White House, federal workers are still grappling with the lasting damage
Don't see anything suggesting he is still involved.
Enough to resolve per "as judged from credible media reports"?
@ChristopherRandles Sorry for the delay. I consider the above sufficient confirmation that Musk is no longer de facto or de jure head of DOGE. Thanks for the contributions.
He says he's leaving at the end of May, and I think he needs to if he wants to keep running his companies.
https://www.vox.com/politics/400096/elon-musk-doge-head-senior-adviser-judge-chutkan
Formally or informally? Because formally it seems he isn't and never has been.
@Weepinbell The bet is about losing "whatever status he has had since the contract creation", which would include the informal one. To resolve yes, he must lack both formal status and informal recognition as DOGE head, as judged from credible media reports.