Will credible future reports indicate that H5N1 was spreading in non-dairy cattle at the following dates?
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Timing: Each target date will be resolved 4 months after the date.
Resolution Criteria: Due to the absence of beef cattle samples, resolutions will be NO.
1,000
3.00@traders I'm resolving each date 4 months after (sorry about being unclear about this - still learning). So far, I cannot find any samples of beef cattle so I'm resolving as NO.
@Siebe obviously it isn't a great state of affairs that USDA isn't sampling beef cattle, or at least not reporting anything. Though given the mechanism of spread via milk I still think it's quite unlikely but who knows.
This is unserious research on my part, but it looks like all cases are restricted to dairy cows so far.