Iran will stop exporting China for any reason. China currently receives 1.2-1.8 million barrels a day from Iran.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, Iran ceases crude oil exports to China for any reason(75% or greater reduction in oil export to china will resolve yes). Verification will be based on official trade data from Chinese customs, reports from reputable energy analytics firms such as Kpler or Vortexa, and credible news sources. If no such cessation/reduction occurs by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No."
Update 2025-06-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The 75% or greater reduction in oil exports will be measured as an average over a several day stretch.
1,000
3.00@DouglasBelnap at least a long enough reduction that average barrels per day over a several day stretch is reduced by 75% or greater.
Currently average is 1.6(ish)million barrels with a peak of 2.2 mill