In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
In twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Plus
41
Ṁ11022043
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Related to ACX post "Declining Sperm Count: Much More Than You Wanted To Know". Although this says "in at least one country", this is just about whether one country is able to detect it, and I will only mark it as true if it seems to be related to a global phenomenon; ie if there is a chemical spill in one country that causes its fertility to decrease, this will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
I'm buying YES as a hedge/arbitrage to the https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-twenty-years-will-the-best-evide market, not because I think this is likely.
does this control for the age of the couples? i think that in 2016 the median maternal age at first birth was 26 years old, and in 2022 it's 30 years old. and i think maybe 27 versus 30 years for median paternal age at first birth
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the fertility rate of South Korea increase from 2023 to 2025?
80% chance
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
73% chance
In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
65% chance
Conditional on a consensus 20 years from now that sperm count has been declining, what will scientists believe was the most important factor?
Will the US fertility rate surpass 2.1 for any year in the next decade?
16% chance
Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?
11% chance
Will Canadas overall fertility rate increase in the next decade?
38% chance
Will Canadas overall fertility rate increase in the next decade?
40% chance
Will any EU country achieve fertility rate >=2.0 by the end of 2032?
21% chance
Will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level before 2028?
48% chance