Will there be a manned outer planets mission before 2100?
Will there be a manned outer planets mission before 2100?
Plus
38
Ṁ17462100
69%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The outer planets are Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
predictedYES
Are we trying to access if we have the raw capability to send manned missions to the outer planets (my recollection is that NASA almost certainly has the capability to reach least Mars if we really wanted to?)
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2030?
2% chance
Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250?
75% chance
Will there be a government-backed manned mission to Mars that returns to Earth before the end of 2040?
44% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2040?
7% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2050?
21% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2050?
23% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2030?
4% chance
Will a manned interstellar mission be launched before January 1, 2060?
20% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2040?
8% chance
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2030?
4% chance