Will Astra's Rocket 4 achieve orbit on its first launch? | Manifold

Will Astra's Rocket 4 achieve orbit on its first launch?

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3

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Jan 2

15%

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1W

1M

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Rocket 4 is a two-stage liquid fueled rocket. The first stage is powered by two licensed Firefly Reaver engines, and the second stage is powered by a single Hadley Ursa Major engine. The first flight is scheduled for late 2023.

For it to count as a launch the rocket needs to complete the countdown sequence and the holdown clamps need to release. A scrub won't count as a launch. Achieve orbit means the rocket reaches orbital velocity.

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What if it never launches? Astra goes bankrupt, or cancels the project, or similar before the first launch. Does this resolve No or N/A?

@EvanDaniel If it never launches then the market resolves N/A. I don't think I've made a market with an ambiguous conditional like this, there is a separate market for if it will ever happen.

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