[Metaculus] Will any Chinese semiconductor foundry have 20% or more global semiconductor market share before 2033?

Will a Chinese AI developer announce a model rivaling o3 performance by February 2025?

Will TSMC dominate the semiconductor manufacturing market for the next 10 years?

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2028?

Will a Chinese company/organization recreate Sora by the end of 2024?

Will the US be able to prop up its domestic semiconductor industry in a way that rivals China's -- not including Taiwan -- in the next five years?

Will China's SMIC manage to manufacture semiconductors that will outcompete Taiwan's TSMC by the end of 2033?

Will China's Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) achieve the 3nm chip generation before 2026?

Which will be the 3 largest chip manufacturers in 2030?

Will a SMIC 5nm chip make it into production in a consumer Huawei device in 2024?