@creator does it count as resignation if they leave amicably, like, not for a scandal, but they just step down to pursue another role, or something?

@bens or like, leave at the midway point of the administration?

@bens Yes, I would consider that a resignation because the president nominates an individual to a position with the intention that they will serve in that roll for at least the duration of that presidents term.

@ReeMARKable does impeachment count as being "fired"?

@AnonUser Yes, I’ll count impeachment as being fired if the office holder is found guilty during the impeachment trial and removed from office.

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/03/11/trump-allies-lutnick-tariff-turmoil-00225137

@ReeMARKable

I'm really curious why the outlook for CoS is especially grim

@AlexBokov In my personal opinion there are probably two reasons: First, the Chief of Staff is arguably the second most important position in the White House. They run the day to day show and is responsible for coordinating amongst the various White House officials, advisors, politicians, military leadership etc. The Chief of Staff is a highly stressful position. If you look back at recent history with the exception of Biden who only has had 1 in 4 years, the majority of Presidents have had multiple COS during the course of their administration. President Obama had 5 in 8 years, Bush had 2 in 8 years, Clinton had 4 in 8 years, and Bush Senior had 3 in 4 years.

Second, Trumps first term was anything but normal. He went through 4 COS in 4 years and his administration was a revolving door of officials coming and going. From past officials accounts he is difficult to work with and as we all know likes to say and do things his way. I would say Susan Wiles did a great job managing Trump during his campaign but given the initial stress that comes with the position and then you pile on the extra stress that comes with managing Trump, I don’t see her sticking around for the full term.

@ReeMARKable

Got it. So it's basically like teaching Defence Against the Dark Arts at Hogwarts or being a drummer for Spinal Tap.

Lol. And, since the time when I asked this question, a bunch of the other cabinet positions got voted up far above Chief of Staff.

People: stop updating on my clueless questions! I'm asking them because I am in fact clueless.

@ReeMARKable does this only cover confirmed or recess appointed cabinet picks or does it cover acting secretaries and acting department heads? I.e. if the person who is deputy attorney general becomes acting attorney general and Trump fires them do they count?

@AaronSimansky Good question. This market will only cover the man/woman who officially assumes the office by senate confirmation or recess appointment. Acting secretaries will not qualify. So to answer your question if the Deputy Attorney General becomes the acting Attorney General and gets fired or resigns, it would not count.