Will any state or autonomous region switch to AI governance, or majority AI decision making before 2050?
Will any state or autonomous region switch to AI governance, or majority AI decision making before 2050?
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Will any state start to use AI for its government, or government using AI and respecting majority of decisions made by AI?
Following will count:
AI taking over.
AI generated party or virtual leader winning elections and being sworn in.
A government willingly leaving most of decision making to AI.
A government willingly leaving governance fully to AI.
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An interesting development to watch - there's a mayoral candidate in Wyoming and a UK parliament candidate, both saying that the human running is an 'avatar' and the AI will be behind all policy decisions.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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