As in the crash was done intentionally by at least one willing person, inside or outside the company.
Resolve NO if there are no longer any active major investigations ongoing, 9 months from today.
Status as of July 22, 2024:
"The Department, and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (@CISAgov) are working with CrowdStrike, Microsoft and our federal, state, local and critical infrastructure partners to fully assess and address system outages." - https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1814286042318643492?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Aug 6, 2024: Crowdstrike releases Root Cause Analysis:
https://www.crowdstrike.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/Channel-File-291-Incident-Root-Cause-Analysis-08.06.2024.pdf
1,000
3.00Can this resolve now?
Edit: ah, I see the 9 months thing
Similar markets with arbitrage opportunities:
https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/was-the-crowdstrike-global-outage-c
https://manifold.markets/Symmetry/what-is-the-reason-for-the-global-i
Major difference is that this market will resolve much later. I am giving 5 1/2 years for various credible investigation agencies to determine fault.
Can this resolve to "no" early if investigations determine it was an accident? Otherwise the market will be pretty biased towards "yes".
I'll admit the structure of this market makes it harder to prove that something didn't happen; I'll resolve NO if there are no longer any active major investigations ongoing, and there has not been any evidence that this was done intentionally. This would exclude investigation do not outright state whether they are active/inactive.
Right now as IT workers are scrambling to fix this mess up, it's a great opportunity for a hacker to plug a USB where they shouldn't
Timing is interesting (night of Trump's nomination). I have my bulletin board and yarn locked and loaded.
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00