AI reliably resolves markets by 2029? | Manifold

AI reliably resolves markets by 2029?

7

Ṁ199

2029

72%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Update 2025-06-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that for a YES resolution:
- The AI's first response must be valid >98% of the time.
- The AI should be able to produce a resolution for >85% concluded markets on Manifold.

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With no human in the loop?

@WilliamGunn I will resolve yes if there is a method where you can get an AI to output a resolution, and the market owner can select agree/disagree, but the ai's first response should be valid >98% of the time.

@Quillist how will you deal with subjective things?

Also: https://manifold.markets/WilliamGunn/is-it-good-practice-to-ask-a-llm-fo?r=V2lsbGlhbUd1bm4

@WilliamGunn the AI is allowed to reject some markets (15%), so implicitly this market is also a bet that in 2029 the vast majority of markets will be constructed in an objective resolvable way

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