If Trump is elected, will consumer "vibes" return to pre-pandemic levels before the midterms in 2026?
If Trump is elected, will consumer "vibes" return to pre-pandemic levels before the midterms in 2026?
Basic
11
Ṁ2452026
22%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If Donald Trump is elected and inaugurated as US President in the 2024 elections, will the "vibe" in the US return to pre-pandemic levels? The vibe will be determined by the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index.
Resolves YES if:
Any three consecutive months after Donald Trump is inaugurated, the consumer sentiment index is at or above 90.
AND
At no point after Donald Trump is inaugurated the consumer sentiment index falls below 65 for more than one consecutive month.
Resolves NO if:
Donald Trump is inaugurated as president and the consumer sentiment index never shows three consecutive months with a score of 90 or above before the midterm elections in 2026.
OR
Donald Trump is inaugurated and the consumer sentiment index has two or more consecutive months below 65.
Resolves N/A if:
Donald Trump is not inaugurated president following the 2024 elections.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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