Will an AI built to solve alignment wipe out humanity by 2100?
Will an AI built to solve alignment wipe out humanity by 2100?
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Will an AI that was built to solve the alignment problem, or for the purpose of researching a solution, actually turn out to be misaligned and destroy humanity by 2100?
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@MartinRandall Any AI that was created with the intention that it would be used to help solve the problem. So, it wouldn't necessarily mean that it is trying to come up with the solutions - it could also be one that is meant to evaluate whether other AIs are aligned, or even an intentionally misaligned AI used as a test.
Betting no due to counterparty risk. My actually forecast here is higher (possibly much, depending on how you define "Built to solve Alignment"), but this is Manifold and not Metaculus.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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