For which events will Manifold change its logo in 2024?

Basic

Ṁ26k

Jan 1

88%

12/25 Christmas

39%

12/31 New Year's Eve

18%

12/21 Winter Solstice (or winter in general)

Resolved

YES

10/31 Halloween

Resolved

YES

11/28 Thanksgiving

Resolved

YES

03/31 Easter

Resolved

YES

04/01 April Fools Day

Resolved

N/A

Groundhog Day

Resolved

N/A

Blue Monday

Resolves YES for all events which cause Manifold to temporarily change the logo displayed on the top left of the site to be themed after the event. The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons). The dates listed are also subject to change if the event could be rescheduled (e.g., the first U.S. presidential debate). If an event is canceled, it resolves N/A.

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26 Comments

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423 Trades

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bought Ṁ5 YES

Late Christmas or "winter in general"?

@ProjectVictory I mean the snowflake could be winter in general but there's literally a santa hat? that's specifically christmas

bought Ṁ15 YES

@Ziddletwix And with the timing, I interpret it as a Christmas thing

feel bad as a potential war (on christmas) profiteer

@IsaacLiu

@PlasmaBallin you can safely resolve now, fox news concedes defeat

normies winning here. as a normie, i approve

@PlasmaBallin

bought Ṁ400 YES

@PlasmaBallin

bought Ṁ25 NO

@PlasmaBallin labor day, fall equinox, & cash prizes day resolve NO

@PlasmaBallin looks like this can be NO?

bought Ṁ693 NO

@PlasmaBallin didn't see a logo change yesterday - this one can resolve no 🦅

@PlasmaBallin resolve more no

bought Ṁ334 NO

@PlasmaBallin some of these can resolve 🚀

bought Ṁ75 NO

hey @PlasmaBallin - mind resolving the June dates? 🙏

reposted

any pivot logo change bets?

This can resolve NO

bought Ṁ10 YES

election day for sure

bought Ṁ150 YES

@PlasmaBallin apparently we got 2 logo changes in 2 days.

I am going to buy so much YES shares in this market!

sold Ṁ13 YES

Our first positive resolution. I wonder if this decreases the probability that April Fool's Day resolves YES since they might not want to introduce a new logo two days in a row.

bought Ṁ35 YES

bought Ṁ120 NO

Resolve NO?

@RS This one doesn't resolve NO, note in the description:

The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons)

@RS The date is just there so you can easily order things by using the A-Z sort

sold Ṁ144 NO

@PlasmaBallin ah gotcha, thanks

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