Resolves once we have a definitive answer to the question.
Update 2025-04-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Conditions:
The market will resolve only when a definitive answer is reached, meaning a stable consensus on who was president in 2020 is established.
Resolution is expected to occur only after 2020 no longer remains a subject of active political contention.
This includes a period when pressures that might encourage the distortion or hiding of evidence have subsided.
Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definitive Answer Clarification:
The market will resolve when a definitive answer is reached, which means the creator has reviewed all notable evidence from both sides.
The resolution requires that the creator has at least 98% confidence in a particular answer being correct.
If more than one answer qualifies as correct under this criterion, the market will resolve by awarding all correct answers equally.
Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Jeopardy Rules Update
The market will now be resolved following Jeopardy rules.
This update replaces the previous detailed resolution criteria with a mechanism that adheres to the Jeopardy format.
1,000
3.00@EdisonYi maybe we are all a simulation, but how do we tell and how long do we wait to try to establish whether this is true?
@ChristopherRandles it's simple, we use rootclaim's methodology and resolve it now. I just ran it myself and it gave the answer a 99.9993% probability of being true. This likelihood estimate is robust even if it's a few orders of magnitude off.
@EdisonYi Prediction markets are the best way to evaluate truth, so I think it's important to defer to market odds on this question:
@PeterMillerc030 what do you consider to be the probability of skeptical scenarios like brain-in-vat or evil demon deceiving you?
@EdisonYi "was" could also be vase misspelled so maybe they meant a gardener. Or they could have meant war, in which case we would have to check who the us was at war with at the time
@TheAllMemeingEye It might not make GRAMMATICAL sense here but there is a still nonzero chance that op is a 3 year old who doesn't know how write a sentence xD
An argument could also be made that "who was" here collectively includes all past presidents e.g. Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt, Obama etc.
@121 This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
If, for some reason, more than one answer is correct, I will resolve the correct answers equally.
@121 If you need more confidence that I will resolve this market accurately, you can also refer to this market:
I have it on good authority that Jonathan R. Alger was the American president in 2020.